Centurion Capital follows a structured, allocation-driven approach to long-term wealth building. We focus on systematic rebalancing and time.
Each investment sleeve has a defined role. The portfolio is designed to behave differently from any single position inside it — capturing most of the upside while dramatically reducing the downside. A tactical overlay leans into bull markets and pulls back in declining ones, checked once a month against the 200-day MA and investor outlook.
Each sleeve has a defined role. VOO drives growth. The barbell captures rotation between two historically uncorrelated sectors. The hedges reduce drawdown without dragging on long-run returns.
| 60% | VOO | S&P 500 Index | Primary return engine |
| 20% | Barbell | QQQM + VDE | Threshold-rebalanced |
| ↳ 50/50 split · trimmed when either drifts to 70%+ · est. +0.5–1.5% rebalancing bonus p.a. | |||
| 10% | SGOV | 0–3 Month T-Bills | Capital preservation & income |
| 5% | GLD | Gold | Inflation & crisis hedge |
| 5% | VXUS | International Equity | Geographic diversification |
Once a month, we check where the market sits relative to the 200-day moving average. If investor outlook backs up those signals, we transition by redirecting new contributions.
Growth of $10,000. Total return with dividends reinvested. 2026 figures are partial-year YTD through approximately May 1, 2026.
| Year | Regime | Portfolio | VOO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020* | Neutral | +14.4% | +18.3% |
| 2021 | Bull | +25.2% | +28.8% |
| 2022 | Defensive | −6.0% | −18.2% |
| 2023 | Bull | +23.2% | +26.3% |
| 2024 | Bull | +20.8% | +25.0% |
| 2025 | Neutral | +18.7% | +17.8% |
| 2026 YTD | Neutral | +9.0% | +6.0% |
| Total | +159.3% | +145.8% |
* 2020 QQQM uses QQQ as proxy (QQQM launched Oct 2020)
| Portfolio | VOO | |
| 2020–2026 cumulative return | +159.3% | +145.8% |
| $10k grown to | $25,926 | $24,582 |
| Est. long-run CAGR | ~13.9% | ~15.3% |
| Est. annual std deviation | ~14% | ~17% |
| Est. max drawdown | ~−30% | ~−34% |
| Est. Sharpe ratio | ~0.82 | ~0.78 |
| 2022 stress test | −6.0% | −18.2% |
Simulated over 20 years using historical index data with annual rebalancing to target weights. The portfolio's lower volatility profile compounds into a meaningful edge — fewer and shallower down years means less ground to recover.
| Metric | Portfolio | VOO |
|---|---|---|
| Mean annual return | 11.15% | 11.81% |
| Std deviation | 13.89% | 16.58% |
| Downside deviation | 7.65% | 9.29% |
| Sortino ratio | 1.220 | 1.076 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.692 | 0.616 |
| Max drawdown | −32.1% | −36.8% |
| Calmar ratio | 0.317 | 0.283 |
| Down years | 4 | 3 |
Simulated 2005–2024 using VOO/IVV, QQQ, XLE, SHV/BIL, GLD, VXUS proxies. Rebalanced annually. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Modelled on a $100K taxable account at the highest federal bracket: 40.8% on short-term gains & ordinary income, 23.8% on long-term gains & qualified dividends. The 70% rebalancing threshold produces only 6 taxable events over 6+ years — most qualifying for long-term rates.
| Year | Pre-Tax | Annual Tax | After-Tax | Rebalances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $113,826 | $917 | $112,909 | 1 |
| 2021 | $143,176 | $504 | $141,755 | 1 |
| 2022 | $129,375 | $1,344 | $126,610 | 2 |
| 2023 | $159,856 | $1,204 | $155,887 | 1 |
| 2024 | $192,975 | $860 | $188,146 | 0 |
| 2025 | $229,041 | $918 | $223,295 | 0 |
| 2026 YTD | $250,800 | $903 | $244,150 | 1 |
| Total | $250,800 | $6,650 | $244,150 | 6 |
Tax assumptions: VOO dividends 1.3%/yr at 23.8%; SGOV interest at 40.8% ordinary rate; VDE dividends 3.5%/yr at 23.8%; QQQM dividends 0.4%/yr at 23.8%; VXUS dividends 2.8%/yr at 23.8%. State taxes not included.